Ones to Watch

Stocks & Currencies to watch


Update May 14th

Ralph Lauren: Sell

RL May 2010

This is a harder one to short, it looks bid to old boots and near all time highs, strong balance sheet etc but I just feel that long term people are going to change the way they shop. Customization, independents, online niche players etc, not to mention I can now buy a Polo shirt alot cheaper from the likes of Tescos and UNIQLO. I may be wrong but I am looking for RL to go back to the $60 level. It is pretty volatile due to its size so this is not one to bet the farm. It moves 200 points a day so £1/2 a point is enough. I am short £8 but feel comfortable up at these levels. Famous last words.

Xtrata:Buy

XTA May 2010

XTA has had a pretty good range this week(see graph) from 970 to just over 1100. This for me is the perfect stock to trade, it moves about 50p a day (Friday was a 90p day) the spreads are very tight, see tmflemingspreads.com and I believe in the long term story of this stock, so I am trading it on the buy side. Buying below 1050 and looking to sell in 40p moves (just less than the daily average)

USD/JPY:Buy

USDJPY MAY 2010

It seems to be stuck in a bit of a range 90-94 but I am buyer down here, not sure how large the upside can be if the market comes off but I am a buyer of any dips which has worked pretty well

CHF/JPY: Buy

Graph courtesy of flemingspreads

Swissy Yen looking pretty lively, ending the week near its lows at 8140. I am still a buyer of dips here, the one danger is that the market looks sharply lower, the market default play seems to buy JPY in this scenario but we are near levels where the Japanese arent comfortable. They are just becoming too expensive which for an exporting nation is a real problem.

Randgold sell

Randgold May 2010

.....which is costing me, I will chop out if it gets to £6250.Iam not sure why i am short of this but started selling it at £52, the price of gold is going up there is plenty of uncertainty out there it just seems too damn expensive. Given that it is a stock I dont know enouh about I have a stop in at 6250 and not a large position, it just annoys me that I could be so wrong...but then again, I usually am:)


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